Wizzy Africa

Dark Matter in the Universe

Andy — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 19:28:00 +0200

What is exciting about Cosmology today is how much we do not know. The observable universe - baryonic matter we are fairly sure comprises only a few percent of the total mass of the universe. The rest is a mystery, but mainstream theories split it between Dark Matter and Dark Energy.

I work at the African Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), and we are blessed with some great visiting lecturers, and I have followed the courses on Cosmology and Quantum Mechanics with interest. I have written about AIMS and their new research centre before.

Cosmological Scale

There have been recent discoveries, newer than the Bullet Cluster, which seem to confirm the presence of Dark Matter.

Since we can't 'see' Dark Matter, where do these observations come from? The most promising method is through Gravitational Microlensing, similar to passing a weak magnifying glass over a desk. A large massive object, whether visible (baryonic) or not (Dark Matter) will bend light waves coming from directly behind the object. It is not really the same as an optical lens, because light passing closest to the centre bends further than that further out.

But - it does increase the apparent brightness of objects directly behind. If we observe the objects over time, our magnifying glass will show varying brightness as the lens and target shift from our perspective. From these calculations can be made of the mass of the gravitational lens. So, observing using gravitational microlensing requires a time dimension to viewing - a historical survey perhaps.

Separating out the observable mass (stars and galaxies) we can see the distribution of non-observable mass. The MCSJ0025 cluster referred to above appears to show two galaxy clusters colliding. When galaxies collide, they mostly pass right through each other - odds are against one star going Blam! right into another. However, the interstellar gas does interact on a local scale, 'tangling' the visible portions of the galaxy clusters.

The Hubble Space Telescope and Chandra X-ray Observatory appear to show that the Dark Matter portions of the galaxy clusters - significant invisible lumpiness that is gravitationally attracted to the cluster - passes straight through each other - flying out the other side through the windscreen, as it were. That is the portion coloured blue in the pictures above.

Quantum scale

At the Quantum scale other intriguing discoveries are being made - watch that space (not this one).

There is another aspect of mass that we completely fail to understand. The baryons that make up the vast majority of our tangible world are protons and neutrons - both made up of three quarks - UUD and UDD. However, if their masses are compared to their components :-

Proton - 938 MeV
Neutron - 939 MeV
Up Quark - 1.5 – 4.0 MeV
Down Quark - 4 – 8 MeV

You can see the massive disparity. The strong force appears to have multiplied the mass of the component quarks a hundred-fold. Quark masses cannot be measured in isolation, as they seem always bound into Hadrons. Their relative masses can be calculated though.

We understand our ignorance in this area. There are huge discoveries to be made that might be as revolutionary as General Relativity. Maybe Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) that are theorised to be behind Dark Matter glue in at the Quantum level to add mass to Hadrons. Or maybe I display my ignorance by even suggesting that.

Nobody really knows.

Xenophobia in South Africa

Andy — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 17:30:00 +0200

At the end of May in South Africa, a lot of violence erupted, apparently targeted against other black africans by fellow black South Africans. Meeting other Nigerians, almost all of them, given a little time, bring up the subject. I found myself having to apologise for the violence, and make some explanation of it.

I had left for Nigeria the week before, to install the computer network at the African University for Science and Technology.

Bobby, a System Administrator I have just hired at the University, was especially pained. He explained the efforts Nigeria had gone to to protest the Apartheid regime, and in strong support of black South Africans at that time, and the special place South Africa holds in their hearts because of the success of the campaign.

Though South Africa was at the other end of the continent, Nigeria was listed with the Frontline States due to its opposition to Apartheid. Almost to the exclusion of everything else, it made anti-Apartheid the cornerstone of its foreign policy in the '70s.

Alhaji Tafawa Balewa, Nigeria’s Prime Minister, stopped the employment of White South Africans in the Nigerian Public Service.
Nigeria sponsored the expulsion of South Africa from the Commonwealth in 1961.
Nigeria gave scholarships to 200 South Africans to come to Nigerian universities and study.
The Montreal Olympics were boycotted by many African countries including Nigeria, dashing the hopes of many Nigerians who had trained for four years hoping to carry away a medal. South Africa were not even present - the dispute was with New Zealand, whose national rugby union team (the All Blacks) continued to play rugby with South Africa.
Nigeria nationalised British Petroleum in protest against British involvement with apartheid South Africa. BP became African Petroleum.
The Federal State and Local governments closed all their accounts with British owned Barclays Bank, in protest against their links with the apartheid regime. Because of all the bad publicity, the bank had to change its name to Union Bank.
The National Committee against Apartheid was set up. All Nigerian workers were made to contribute one Nigerian pound, which was deducted from their salaries, for the purposes of the liberation struggle in Southern Africa.

I picked these out because they are specifically about Nigeria. Other frontline states have their own records of defiance - I do not mean to elevate Nigeria above all the other nationalities that have suffered in the violence. Somalis in South Africa have a pattern of opening Spaza shops within the townships - reducing the need for residents to travel to town to do their shopping. They are successful - they work hard. They are attacked because of envy and greed - not because they are taking away employment. Why were there no shops in the townships in the first place ? Because financially successful township residents toss their heads and declare it is beneath them to do business there - they are going to town.

South Africa - shame on you. Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.

OLPC and Intel Classmate PC in Nigeria

Andy — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 15:36:00 +0200

Today, I visited two schools in Abuja, Nigeria, both of which were pilot schools for the new low cost laptops targeted at schools in the third world. One Laptop per Child started in Galadima Junior school, in Abuja Model Village, and Intel launched 'One laptop per teacher and child' at Jabi Junior Secondary school, in Jabi district, Abuja.

Nigeria seems to be a testing ground for low cost laptops - pioneered by Nicholas Negroponte's OLPC, but being ambushed these days by other offerings, like the ASUS EEE PC and the Intel Classmate.

I am also involved with computers in schools in South Africa, and I was interested to visit both these pioneering schools while I am on business in Nigeria. There has been quite a bit of press about the rivalry between the two platforms, with Negroponte furious that Intel left the OLPC board to start its own venture. The nuts and bolts of the differences appear to be that Negroponte is taking the High road, with altruism, open source software, and buy one for yourself/get one for a third world child, while Intel has a business model that says Intel not AMD, Microsoft not Linux, and devil take the hindermost.

OLPC

Taxis are cheap here. Petrol costs about 70 US cents per litre - taxis cruise for business. I found Galadima school in Abuja Model Village in the north of Abuja - in an area historically belonging to the Gbagyi tribe. The senior teacher showed me around the current location - now a lot larger than the original building where OLPC started in March 2007. The previous Education minister had signed off an ambitious program to provide every Nigerian schoolchild with such a laptop. Unfortunately, the April election brought in another minister, who shelved it.

Now the bad news. There are no longer OLPC laptops at the school. One of the consequences of being a pilot school for OLPC was that they were issued with beta hardware, and there were many problems with the unit, from cables coming unplugged, the wireless network disconnecting, and hardware failure. In preparation for its replacement, the hardware was withdrawn in December 2007. However, at that point, there was a lawsuit filed against OLPC by a Nigerian keyboard maker, claiming infringement of layout and something about keyboard scancodes. As a consequence - the children are still waiting for their replacements.

On my way out of Galadima I visited the chief of the area - Chief Habakkuk of the Gbagyi. He was gracious, and explained that his elder brother, who had been chief, had died 5 years ago, and the mantle of chief had passed to him. As a father of a child at the school, he expressed his thanks for the efforts of OLPC for bringing the laptops, and consequent attention, to his community. I explained that some friends in Cape Town, South Africa, worked on the software inside those laptops, and was visiting the school on their behalf as well to carry the message back. I hope that those children eventually get their laptops, and expressed this wish to the chief.

Classmate

I met a group of people from Denmark at the Hilton Hotel afterwards - who have a long history of building schools in northern Nigeria. We exchanged notes on successes and failures, and we discussed teacher education, bringing curriculum to the classroom, and I evangelised offline copies of wikipedia for disconnected schools. I also got directions to Jabi Secondary school, my next stop. A taxi-ride got me there - for about 4 US dollars equivalent.

This school was an exercise in contrasts to Galadima. Well-maintained, older students, I waited about 45 minutes to meet the woman principal, who was busy with staff meetings. I chatted in the ante-room with some teachers, all of whom asked me about the recent xenophobic attacks on Nigerians in South Africa. I apologised, and did my best to explain what I thought were the causes. The principal eventually greeted me, welcomed me, and found the computer manager to show me around.

As a showcase school for Intel in Africa, one thing was obvious - the money was here. 250 Classmate PCs, an inverter worth US$7,000 to power some admin computers and the internet link, and a WiMAX internet link costing about US$10,000 per month to sustain. In their first year, Intel paid for a full-time IT manager to work at the school - I estimate that cost US$25,000. As it happens, I have been closely involved in sourcing all those resources for AUST, and I am confident of those figures.

The classmate PCs use wireless access to an omnidirectional antenna, that links straight to a WiMAX flat-panel antenna that links the school to Abuja's suburban wireless network - no server in between. Students use email straight from gmail and yahoo. Teachers book out 40 or so Classmates, the class uses them, and then they book them back. They cannot take them home.

It works. Classmate 1, OLPC 0.

Update: a few links :- BBC Special report and Politics 'stifling $100 laptop' (BBC)

Below are a new classroom at Galadima, the sign outside Jabi, Abuja Model village behind Galadima, and the Antennas at Jabi.

Nigerian infrastructure

Andy — Fri, 30 May 2008 17:31:00 +0200

Abuja, Nigeria, the capital city, suffers from lack of infrastructure. Potholes, no landlines, power cuts every day.

Nigeria as a tourist

In 1992 as a tourist on an overland truck, I travelled through Nigeria from the Cameroon border in the north, down through the city of Kano and its magnificent central market, to the bustling and wild city of Lagos. In Nigeria "Benin" is a western province - the sleepy francophone country to the west is pronounced differently and must be identified as the republic of benin.

We crossed the border from the French-speaking northern part of Cameroon, and at the border post our papers were examined most carefully for the minutest transgression that would signal the opportunity for a bribe - or "dash" as it is known. The next few kilometers we had to pass through half a dozen arbitrary roadblocks, manned by sons of powerful local politicians or chiefs - who would sing the mantra of "papers please" and would subject everything to the same scrutiny for the same purpose.

Having passed through the border entanglements, we then headed west on a straight tar road through semi-desert. We were self-sufficient, with water, firewood, food and tents to last a few days. As the evening approached we spotted a large shady tree about 100m from the road, so we bumped down to it and started setting up camp.

Tables were broken out, someone was assigned to dig a pit as a toilet, tents were put up, a fire started, and dinner was under way.

A small boy with only a ragged T-shirt appeared after 30 minutes or so, soon to be joined by a companion. Gradually, we were surrounded by a group of locals, of all ages. Even old granny had made the journey to the Big Tree to see these white people (plus Wendy, an African-American from Brooklyn) who might just as well have arrived from space. Eventually, as we picked our teeth and made ready for bed, there must have been about 100 people silently standing in a circle around us.

It was just curiosity. We did not feel threatened. We had breakfast in the morning, with a reduced audience, and left. I felt that these people did not even know they were Nigerian. They had some contact with others - hence the T-shirts - but I somewhat doubt they had schools or clinics. I felt they were living a life essentially unchanged for perhaps a century.

Nigeria on business

Fast-forward to 2008.

I am again in Nigeria for 5 weeks, in the capital city of Abuja. I am helping to set up a new University, the African University of Science and Technology, due to open in July. It is an exciting project, where I am setting up their computer infrastructure.

Abuja is one of those artificial capitals - purpose-built, like Washington DC, Canberra, Brazilia, Naypyidaw, Burma. It is (deliberately) set slap-bang in the middle of a country noted for its polarities - North, South, Christian, Muslim, rich, poor.

The city is about 30 years old, in lush countryside, and, at the moment, humid weather, which I like. Commerce and money pretty much all revolves around government contracts. In Nigeria, the source of most wealth is oil, and the government is the largest beneficiary. In turn, they distribute the largesse, through somewhat unaccountable and opaque contracts, and if you are well-connected you are almost guaranteed a good life.

First impressions of the city is that everything is under construction. Cranes swing everywhere - roads have diversions. Almost no traffic lights work - during the day traffic police direct from stands in the middle of intersections. At other times a horn and considerable boldness is required.

Infrastructure

Other peculiarities also surfaced - mostly around infrastructure. There is never enough electricity - power is erratic, usually off for hours every day. This is a fact of life - and consequently the generator is ubiquitous. Big generators, the size of a container, are dotted around the rich suburbs and outside clubs and restaurants. They must run the air-conditioning - 2.5Kw each. Luckily diesel is 1/3 world price. As an oil producer, Nigerians feel they have an entitlement to cheap fuel. It is still not cheap though.

The other signature of Abuja (and Lagos) are the communication towers that festoon the landscape - every bank has its own tower, built in the yard/garden, reaching up 10 metres. These all use WiMAX or similar technology for terrestrial wireless communication. There appear to be almost no landlines - any telephones you see are purely internal. Our house where we stay has phones between the rooms and security outside - they reach no further. Though GSM is used for cellphones, there are companies providing CDMA access for phones - usually a proprietary solution for a landline replacement.

Power cuts seem to be an accepted part of life - if they get in your way, buy a generator. There are generators everywhere - our university has two, each the size of a container. The compound where the house is has a similar-sized one, shared with the neighboring plot. Restarants have them, nightclubs have them. It must be a great business in Nigeria - even in the market every stall has a little honda generator buzzing away in the corner, and the whole place smells of exhaust fumes. Alley-ways might have a dozen - for nearby stalls. Nigeria has hydroelectric power, but clearly not enough. Building programs for power stations stall when the allocated budget runs out - the rest of the money having disappeared into officials pockets.

Flying into Lagos on my way to Abuja I was amazed at the number of half-completed building projects - in certain areas it was about half the structures visible - no roof, grass in the middle. Someone told me these were foreign-funded building projects, but I just think it is par for the course in Nigeria.

When Abuja was built, the indigenous Warri people were cleared from the area with promises of compensation and land allocated elsewhere. Many of these promises were not followed up.

AUST University

AUST University is brand new - built on land between Abuja city centre and the airport. The regional government has had a controversial program of demolishing the shanty towns that stand in the way of proposed development. They move only those people not from the Warri tribe - and have no program of compensation for the displaced.

The 40 hectares of cleared land handed to AUST still has some Warri dwellings - but is by and large empty. The Warri are also expected to move on - they just have more time to do so.

The University will have a heavy Maths program - geared towards Science and Technology. The first year has already been selected - 50 students. It is funded by the World Bank, with the land donated by the government of Nigeria. The program is run in association with AIMS, the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences - where I work, based in Muizenberg, near Cape Town, South Africa.

Computers

My task is to install the computer infrastructure, and train a local IT manager to run the system. We have not yet been successful in finding anyone. Though I do have another month here, sooner is better than later.

The computers are the latest HP servers, the DL380 G5, fitted with gigabytes of ram, and the fileserver has a terabyte of disk. Nice toys to play with. The computer infrastructure needs a UPS in addition to the onsite generators to cope with the frequent and lengthy power interruptions. They are sized to run the computer labs for 8 hours - so they are big. We have a gigabit fibre connection between the administration buildings and the computer labs and server room. Internet connectivity is a choice between terrestrial wireless (the towers) or VSAT (the satellite dish). We are going the satellite route. It is a pity there is no viable alternative that connects us to a Nigerian internet backbone.

It seems no expense has been spared - there is a lot of money sloshing about. Is that Nigeria, or World bank ? It does seem that it is properly accounted for.

Below, see an Airtime Vendor, in the Market with generators, selling fruit are Ladies at market, another Market picture, a Tailor at the same Wuse II market, some porters outside the mosque asking to carry goods to your car, and the Nigerian National Christian Centre - a multi-denominational church that is built opposite the mosque. Unfortunately they have decided to build a multi-story Cultural Centre in between - a triumph of planning..

Launch of AIMS Research Centre, Muizenberg

Andy — Sun, 11 May 2008 15:10:00 +0200

On May 11, the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences opened its Research Centre. Present were a host of dignitaries, led by Stephen Hawking, Michael Griffin, the current administrator of NASA, and Nobel prize-winners David Gross and George Smoot. A lineup indeed.

I have posted about AIMS before. The bread-and-butter of AIMS is a post-graduate diploma course for African Mathematicians. This broadens the role of the institute to include research. AIMS is set by the sea in a lovely location in Muizenberg, and is the brainchild of Neil Turok, who last year won a TED prize for this and his work on cosmology. TED listens to wishes from its winners - Neil's declared wish is that the next Einstein come from Africa.

Stephen Hawking arrived - to much gawking by the media. The honoured guests had a short tour of the facilities at AIMS, after which the press and visitors including British Consulate officials listened to a short presentation by Neil Turok. After photo opportunities and coffee and biscuits, we traipsed over to the Muizenberg Pavilion which had seating for 800 to listen to the presentations.

First up was Michael Griffin - a very accomplished engineer who made a 20 minute presentation on NASA, where it has been and where it is going to. He had some fly-throughs of the Universe - pointing out how very tiny and small we are, after visiting galaxy superclusters the Local Group of galaxies is tiny, and we in turn are a tiny part of that. He finished up by telling the students that NASA had some very cool toys, and invited them to use them.. A beautiful presentation, well-delivered.

Next up was Stephen Hawking - who appeared to piece together his speech in sections. All the man can do is twitch his cheek to navigate a menu in front of him - so all the talking was done by the computer. But there were some lengthy pauses between sections, telling me that it was stitched together. He ran over a brief history of cosmology, including his first PHD work, with a good helping of humour. He described how the church accepted research into the origins of the Universe, but balked at the initial singularity of the Big Bang, saying that was the preserve of God. A picture came up of Hawking behind bars .. It gave a nice overview of current theories of cosmology and Quantum Mechanics, and showed a robust mind behind the frailty of his body.

David Gross was up next, and ran over the details of the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation including the latest WMAP data. His talk invited the students to find the meaning and causes behind the observed results that we simply accept today because we have no generally accepted explanation.

George Smoot was the last excellent speaker - his Nobel Prize was due to the discovery of minute variations in what was previously thought to be a completely uniform Microwave Background. He had some beautiful computer models - starting with the matter distribution of the CMBR, plugging in values for Dark Matter and Dark Energy, and showing that these computer models accurately predict the condensation of the current Universe, and the filaments that thread through it, and baryonic matter built on the backbone of clumpy dark matter that we cannot see.

The Pavilion was packed, and went away pleased. Myself and some members of the local Linux Users Group retired to a local watering hole, and someone there commented on the flavour of agnosticism in some of the talks - Stephen Hawking mentioned it, and a question from the audience asked whether our self-awareness made us inherently 'special' - Gross (I think) shot that one down as 'giving up' on cosmology.

Zimbabwe - Thabo Mbeki and Aziz Pahad

Andy — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 17:27:00 +0200

Since the election itself, we have watched, in slow motion, the frantic backpedalling of ZanuPF to steal the elections after the fact.

We have all watched Zimbabwe's slide from prosperous neighbour to failed state in the past 8 years. There was much wringing of hands by western countries - watching another African basket case grow from what was a functioning economy with educated populous.

Granted - there was a lot of unfinished business from independence - particularly about transfer of ownership of land to black Zimbabweans. There were a few attempts to deal with it, but it became a political football, and a very convenient scapegoat for ZanuPF to rally the peasant population when it was convenient to do so.

Zimbabwe did not loom large enough on the world agenda for it to be politically prudent to intervene. Targeted sanctions were put in place, against an increasingly wider palace grouping, starting with Robert Mugabe and growing down.

High level contacts were made from Germany, Britain, USA, EU to countries that were felt could make a difference - Zimbabwe's neighbours - and in particular Thabo Mbeki. As president of South Africa, her southern neighbour and haven for Zimbabwean economic refugees, electricity supplier - surely he could talk to uncle Bob.

When talking about South African foreign policy, there is always another name that comes to mind - Aziz Pahad. An ANC activist during the Apartheid years, mostly from outside the country, he has struggle credentials. In 1985, he was elected a National Executive Committee member of the ANC – a position he still holds. He was appointed deputy head of the ANC Department of International Affairs in 1992, and in the 1994 elections won a seat in Parliament and was appointed Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs in the government of President Nelson Mandela, a position he also still holds. Foreign Ministers come and go, but they all consult the veteran of the department - their loyal deputy.

Thabo Mbeki engaged in his 'quiet diplomacy' when dealing with his northern neighbour. Others shouted from the rooftops - where had that got them ? Only Bob's deaf ear. South Africa - indebted to Mugabe as the leader of the Frontline States during Apartheid, would never invade Zimbabwe, so regular private discussions were the order of the day. But we feel these were mostly an opportunity for uncle Bob to tell a man 18 years his junior old war stories about defeating the British against all odds. What could this young man, preoccupied with his books during the years of South Africa's liberation, tell an old war horse about the world ?

Repeatedly we had assurances from Thabo that all was well with Zimbabwean democracy. The people of Zimbabwe, we were told, would sort out their own problems - it was not for South Africa to intervene.

The 2002 Presidential elections came. Observers from a Norwegian mission and the local Zimbabwean Election Support Network (ZESN) issued condemnations of the election, saying it was held in a climate of fear. But observers from Nigeria and South Africa endorsed the elections, while the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) team announced that "in general the elections were transparent, credible, free and fair."

The 2005 parliamentary elections came, with a SADC observer mission led by Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka. They pronounced a clean bill of health. Many others disagreed.

The election on 29 March 2008 came. Ground rules had changed - ballots were to be counted at the polling stations, and the results posted on the door for all to see. The results were passed on to the ZEC for collation centrally.

The ZEC were very slow releasing the results. It took one week to establish that the opposition MDC had beaten ZanuPF in the parliamentary elections, and a further few days to establish that the Senate was evenly divided. The ZEC released no results from the presidential elections. None. 17 days later not a single result (each of which is posted plain as day of the poll station door). There is no explanation from the ZEC.

The MDC, after many diplomatic protestations, launched a legal bid 7 days after the election to have the results released. It took one day to reach the court through police blockades, another day to establish that the court had jurisdiction, and another day to decide that it was indeed urgent. A day later the judge heard submissions, and announced that 5 days later, on Monday, the decision would be announced. Amongst the defence submissions was a claim that it would be 'dangerous' to release the results. I hope that did not intimidate the judge.

Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa had in the meantime convened a single-issue, emergency summit on the Zimbabwean situation exacerbated by the no-show of the presidential results, to be held 12 April.

Leaders of the 14 country grouping all arrived in Lusaka on Saturday. Mugabe had decided not to come. Thabo Mbeki visited him in Harare on his way through to the summit. After the meeting in Harare, Mbeki emphasised there was no crisis, his quiet diplomacy holding firm against the chorus of questions.

The SADC met in Lusaka, for 13 hours. SADC deliberations are committed, like the British Commonwealth, to consensus. It is a noble line to hold, particularly on contentious issues. 13 hours is a long time for that many leaders to be holed up in one meeting room. I can only presume that, as the economic powerhouse of the region, Thabo Mbeki's pleas for patience and judicial process swayed the group. There must have been many regional doubts though for the meeting to have lasted that long.

The statement at the close was mild, exhorting quick release of the results, scrupulous adherence to the law, and, in case of a runoff, elections to be held in a secure environment. The same day, the Information Minister Sikhoanyiso Ndlovu said the Zimbabwean army will not intervene against civilians and soldiers will remain in their barracks. One must presume this was at the prompting of the SADC.

The judge spoke on Monday. Case dismissed, with costs.

Meanwhile, the ZEC said that all results, including the presidential results would be recounted in 23 constituencies. The MDC protested that this was illegal - protests had not been lodged within 48 hours as stipulated by law, and the recount was illegal before the results of the first count had been announced. The ballot boxes in question had been held out of sight of all interested parties for 2 weeks - it was riggable, and against the spirit of counting and posting the results immediately.

We now have a vacuum until next Saturday - the date the runoff (if there is one) should be held, according to the law. Without knowledge of the election, election observers cannot be present, giving a free hand for ZanuPF forces to conduct a fresh round of intimidation.

The SADC can speak with authority. They have singularly failed to stop the theft of this election. The buck passes upstairs - to the AU, and after them, the UN.

I blame Thabo Mbeki - fair and square. I have said so before, and I say it again. The man is unable to lead, and has to be pointed down the path. His own descent from power will be gracious, as opposed to Mugabe's, but his legacy will be remembered as failing on the AIDS question, and failing on the Zimbabwe question. The ANC needs to find a (much) better way of choosing its leaders.

Thabo, lead. Like your predecessor, who pointed the way, and the people followed.

Rock, Paper, Scissors

Andy — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 12:00:00 +0200

Zimbabwe went to elections last weekend. The Movement for Democratic Change use the open hand as a symbol, ZanuPF the cockerel. ZanuPF were so bereft of ideas that their slogan was "Get behind the fist" - a clear counterpoint to MDC's open hand. That makes international opinion the Scissors - unable to conquer the Rock.

I have watched, aghast, Zimbabwe's economic slide for 6 years. My first visit to Southern Africa was in 1999 - and I decided against visiting Zimbabwe then because my trip would have been too short. I have met many Zimbabweans in South Africa, both black and white, and they have all impressed me as intelligent, well-educated, and courteous.

Robert Mugabe is also intelligent and well-educated. Even though he delivered a magnanimous speech on taking office, telling the white Zimbabweans that they were free to stay and participate in the new Zimbabwe, I somehow feel that his hand under the podium was clenched into a fist.

A teacher by training, he invested heavily in education for his country in the first decade. In the film "Out of Africa", Karen Blixen goes to the chief to explain she wishes to educate the workers on her farm. the chief is suspicious, and makes a mark on a tree. All children below this height could be taught - taller than that, no. So, Karen Blixen taught only the younger children. A year later, the chief formally came to her and told her that the mark no longer existed - she could teach everyone. Robert Mugabe educated his people beyond himself. He gave them and education, and then tried to take it back - independent newspapers were bombed, and repressive media laws introduced.

Mugabe always thought Zimbabwe could go back to the land. After all, his grandparents had grown mealies and had been happy - why could that not happen again ? However - he forgot about population growth - there are probably ten times as many people living on the land now. And - those people have higher expectations - they want cellphones, for instance.

Basic economics says that a country must pay for its imports, with international currency. Zimbabwe had survived, comfortably, on its agricultural output - particularly tobacco and cotton. That was the foreign currency earner that allowed the land-locked country to import diesel and cellphones.

I grew up in Kenya. My parents grew wheat, barley, pyrethrum, cattle and sheep. They sold their farm through a British Government Aid program to Kenya. The deal was that a price was agreed, the land transferred to the Kenya Government, my parents drew the money in the UK. A cooperative of 300 Kikuyus put a down payment on my fathers farm with the government. While they paid off the rest of the purchase price to the government, they were required to farm the land as my father had done - large scale agriculture.

I visited the farm 20 years later, with my brother. I talked to Mr Kamau - who had been delegated to go to Nairobi with the last payment, and returned with the title deeds to much celebration. Opinion was unanimous - the farm was to be broken up into 3 acre plots, and each would have his own. Hence we have moved from large scale agriculture to subsistence farming. How is the country to pay for diesel and cellphones ?

Zimbabwe found out. A referendum was held in 2000, that proposed transferring the land from white farmers to landless peasants, and increasing powers for the presidency. An SMS campaign organised by the newly formed MDC defeated the referendum - the first major challenge to Mugabe's authority. He responded by unleashing the youth brigades to invade the farms, and telling the police not to intervene - clearly working against the wishes of the electorate that had voted in the referendum.

The presidential election held in 2002 was given thumbs-up by the Southern African Development Community and South African observers teams. This, crucially, gave Mugabe legitimacy domestically. America and the United Kingdom thought otherwise, and imposed targeted sanctions agains Mugabe and his entourage.

A superficially popular gambit of "returning the land to the people" meant a sudden dearth of foreign currency. Inflation set in. Inflation works by robbing pensioners of their savings to fund the economy. Soon there was no more money in the pensioners accounts, and inflation climbed rapidly to 150,000 percent - banknotes with seven zeros on them, even after three zeros had been dropped in 2006. A mediation effort chaired by South Africa dragged on for most of 2007, culminating in a few paltry concessions in early 2008. What turned out to be an important one was that all votes were to be counted at the polling stations, and results posted on the door.

Ignoring SADC and Zimbabean election guidelines, Mugabe announced the election date without consultation to be March 29, and the game was on. Morgan Tsvangirai put his name on the ballot, and, to Mugabe's suprise, so did Simba Makoni, his erstwhile financial guru, as did the leader of the breakaway MDC faction, Arthur Mutambara. Makoni's candidature discomfited ZanuPF, as it meant they could not tar all other candidates as British stooges. It also signalled to the electorate that change was afoot. The new election laws also stated that in the event that one candidate did not reach 50% of the vote, there would be a runoff. Makoni was there to take more votes away from Mugabe, lessening his chances of achieving 50%.

Amidst many clear violations of clean elections, like equal access to the media and freedom of assembly, a partisan Electoral commission, a flawed voters roll, some observer groups arrived in the country. Western observer groups were refused accreditation. However, in contrast to the past, the MDC were allowed to campaign in the countryside.

Zimbabweans voted. Peacefully. A few people found their names not on the roll, and their was some harassment of MDC election observers, but the day came and went and SADC observers gave a qualified assent to the process. Numbers were posted on poll station doors.

Then there was silence. After polls closed on Saturday evening, it was not until Monday morning that results began to trickle out of the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission. Their website never worked - and the only results that were released were the parliamentary elections, not the presidential ones.

Election officials are under a great deal of pressure during the count. In Kenya, they cracked - were rushed to a conclusion, and 1000 people died in the ensuing mayhem. (That clip is from the town where I grew up). But there can be no excuse for the complete silence over Presidential results. Not one single result for four days. Are they having tea in there ? To allay fears of vote-rigging, they invited observers from the parties to view the count on Tuesday - three days after polls closed.

But .. we already have all the numbers - they are just being 'confirmed' by the Electoral Commission. So - why don't interested observers tally up those numbers so we can count them ourselves ? The MDC (of course) have representatives all over the country, and zimelectionresults/ also do. It is a simple matter to SMS the results in, and publish them.

In fact, for the Parliamentary elections, Sokwanele took zimelectionresults figures, and placed them side-by-side with the ZEC figures, in handy sortable columns so we can review the progress. Well done. I don't need the results 'summarised' by anyone else - I want raw numbers I can compare with other sources.

This begs the question - why not do this for the Presidential numbers as well ? To me, it seems there is something going on behind the scenes. Diplomatic maneuvering for Mugabe's exit ? Frantic sounds of shredding machines emanating from CIO headquarters ?

I read about a group that did election analyses, deciding whether the election was fair or not, without even being present at the election. They took all the numbers given out, and pulled off the two most significant digits. Thus 6625 renders '66', 15626 renders '15'. they then did a statistical analysis of the double digits. It should be a smooth curve from '10' down to '99'. When people make up numbers, they forget to conform to this curve - there will be lumps in the middle or the end. So - no summaries, please - just the facts, Ma'am.

Desmond Tutu says that Mugabe cannot possibly claim victory after all this. He has called for African peacekeepers to be on alert. We have the memory of Kenya's chaotic election aftermath fresh in our memories - none of that please. Zimbabweans must be commended for their calmness during this period - and the ZEC must do what they were asked to do.

My best wishes go to the Zimbabwean people. They have been asked - they answered. Mugabe must go, disappear into irrelevancy, and the hard work of picking up an economy must begin. The electoral commission might squeeze enough votes onto the ballot to force a runoff. I sincerely hope that is not the case.

First - the priority must be to return the land to its former productivity. Only then can inflation be checked - which steals everyone's hard work. We watch for the first 100 days of MDC rule, and see what a new government can do. There is an established old guard left behind - particularly in the security forces. They must shape up, or ship out. The displaced farm workers must be found work. The draconian media laws must be repealed, and a free press allowed to restart. Radio licences should be given out, and the airwaves opened. The fresh air of information should blow through the country, so everyone knows the truth.

Good luck, Morgan.

Habeni Primary

Andy — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 16:09:00 +0200

Habeni Primary school is in Zululand, and has recently acquired a computer lab. Courtesy of Kelsey Wood and Wizzy Digital Courier, it also has Internet.

Education

In Africa, children walk to school. In South Africa, where I am based, schools and clinics are the only large buildings in the rural areas, and are thus easily spotted with their long roofs. The minimum requirement for a school are rooms, teachers, blackboards, and students. I have come across many schools that have no more than those basics.

Buildings and a roof also mean that a gutter and large plastic tank is set up to catch water, for drinking. The next priority service to arrive is either electricity, or a telephone. Some schools have one and not the other. Electricity is for lights, charging cellphones, and boiling water. Cellphones are everywhere - even very far out in Zululand.

Electricity and computers

If Eskom, South Africa's electricity provider, gets to the school, the possibility arises of using computers.

The first computer is invariably placed in the Principal's office, or very close by. It is used to track the children, and make sure their parents have paid for their schooling. Next, it is used to prepare documents, and write letters.

Maybe someone like the Shuttleworth Foundation or a local company has provided more computers, for the children to use. the Shuttleworth Foundation has funded well over one hundred such schools, and I have been involved in many of their installations. Sometimes the schools themselves have found funding, and I have installed computers at those schools as well.

We all know that computers are important - but what can the children learn about computers in such an environment ? I have seen many such installations, and can report that children are excited and happy to use computers. First thing they find are the games, and from those they quickly learn how to use a mouse, and, with certain games, mastery of the keyboard.

The Champion

From here, is is an uphill trudge again - and it is critically dependent on a good teacher to guide them. In fact, let us take a step back and decide the prerequisites for putting a computer lab into a school in the first place. For me, they come down to :-

Electricity
Computers
A secure lab environment
A Champion - someone at the school who is willing to make it a success

Without all of these, there is no point in going ahead. In particular, if there is no champion, the project will never bear fruit. I have failures that attest to that. Teachers can find computers intimidating, and the more so because the children do not. I explain from the outset that the children have more time, and inclination, to learn, and will quickly become more familiar than the teachers. If my designated champion cannot get over that - well - I have saved myself a lot of time.

Internet

So - what will the children learn about computers during their time at school ? We can think of a lot of things, but one that is almost dismissed out of hand is Internet. But - lets face it - that is why you buy a computer, and why your mother buys a computer. If the kids come out of school with no appreciation of Internet, I think the school has failed them.

What does it take to get that appreciation ? What can be installed on those computers to help them over the hurdle ?

Wikipedia

I have found the Killer App - the thing that is cheap, easy to use, and gives that sense of awe that we all got on our first encounter with Internet. It is Wikipedia. I used to put the whole copy on the English wikipedia down, duplicating the server setup at wikimedia foundation, using apache, mediawiki, and mysql. However, the picture archive and server requirements have now completely outstripped what I can provide, so I settle for one of a number of article collections that have been assembled for precisely my school audience. I use the SOS Children release, which has articles on about 4,500 topics. A drop in the ocean compared to the real thing, but with good coverage of articles for schools, and a glance over for proofreading.

This gives them something to read - introduces the HTML metaphor, links, and self-paced instruction that we all love about the web.

Email

But .. Internet is nothing without Email. Web is broadcast like TV - Email is one-to-one like the phone.

Wikipedia comes with the initial install - a one-time dump of information. Email requires connectivity. We (in the first world) use broadband, wireless, telephone lines, money. What options does a rural school in Zululand have ?

You can read about all Wizzy Digital Courier's offerings, but I will cut to the chase and talk about our rock-bottom offering for schools with not even a telephone line. Mervyn, the Champion at the school, lives in Eshowe and drives to the school every day. He stops in to Eshowe High School, which has a Wizzy Digital computer connected to their always-on ADSL line. Email for Habeni Primary arrives at this computer, and waits for Mervyn, who plugs in a USB stick, logs in to a web interface, and transfers all the school's email to the stick with one click.

He logs out, unplugs the stick, and drives to the school. A similar interface at the school computer transfers all inbound mail to the school computer, and any mail waiting to leave on to the stick. When Mervyn next visits Eshowe High, that mail will be sent to its destination.

Here, a USB stick travelling regularly back and forth along a fixed route has substituted for a telephone line. It has high capacity, and has no direct costs. Obviously Eshowe High has some costs associated with this, but they are willing to provide this service.

Web

Mervyn has another trick up his sleeve. A management interface at the school allows him to select some websites, and pick certain pages to be scooped, either once-off, or on a regular basis (useful for news sites). These scoop requests travel along with the email, and Eshowe High will fetch these pages, and package them up for delivery back to Habeni.

Linux

Though the software is built on top of Linux, the computer lab can be either Windows (supplied free to South African schools) or Linux. I recommend a Thin Client system, built around Edubuntu.

Photos credit Kelsey Wood, Wandering Lens Photography - and check these and other galleries at wanderinglens.net

Khekhekhe's First Fruits ceremony

Andy — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 13:18:00 +0200

In 1999 I visited Khekhekhe with Graham, to negotiate a price for National Geographic to do a piece on him. I wrote up that encounter at the time. Khekhekhe held a ceremony on the 23rd of Feb every year - which he called the First Fruits ceremony. It seemed really to be a time for the old Mthethwa Sangomas to get together, Khekhekhe to show his prowess with snakes, and some beasts to die for the table.

My first visit to the ceremony I counted six cowhides stretched over various roofs - meat for the party.

The old man died about 18 months ago. Graham and I had visited him that year, and he was clearly feeling his age then. Khekhekhe was an Mthethwa - a historic tribe in this area before the Zulus. In Khekhekhe's kraal is the grave of one of his ancestors - Dingiswayo. Dingiswayo was Shaka Zulu's Mentor - Shaka served under him and learned his battle strategies before refining them for his own empire later.

Khekhekhe is now buried next to him at the kraal.

Through their influence an success, everyone in Zululand is a Zulu - even though they might originally have been Mthethwa or Ndwandwe, so I think of Khekhekhe as a Zulu. Zulus handle succession very poorly - there has always been a scrap when the mantle is passed to the next generation.

Khekhekhe's death was no different. Rumour has it that the bank accounts were cleaned out in short order - about R2 million disappeared. In the snake house was found a suitcase with about half a million in cash. The old man's business was all cash, and I doubt that the taxman called to look at his books. He had a bus business, undoubtably run by someone else - red buses and taxis with "Z. MTHETHWA" written on the side to discourage anyone who was thinking about stealing from the greatest Sangoma on the Tugela. The half million was distributed equitably among his wives and children. There seemed an element of mistrust now - and talking to Ngqomombo she decided to move away to the Transkei where her daughter lived.

First Fruits ceremony

So, I was curious to see what has happened to the place after the old man had passed on. We went there again on 23rd Feb for the ceremony. With us were Kelsey, an American visiting South Africa to help deploy Wizzy Digital Courier, and a couple of other friends from New York City, Dave and MJ, and a friend of mine from Cape Town who is training to be a Sangoma herself. We also had a few other tourists and Zululanders along for the ride.

So - how were things organised ?

We found a camp divided - what had been one kraal was now two. The older son had the lower kraal with the graves, the water close by, and the cattle kraal. However, further up the hill was now a much larger establishment, with a new shrine to the ancestors, steps, and concrete. On this day the larger celebration was higher on the hill.

But where Khekhekhe insisted on a procession of all his contemporary Sangomas at his First Fruits, with him leading and displaying the snakes, the son was a one man show. Certainly, there were a lot of other, mostly female, sangomas in attendance, and the three metre python he had draped around his shoulders was a sight to see.

Snakes

Later he brought out a bright green mamba, and a brown boomslang, both very much more to be feared than the huge python. The boomslang even bit him - much to the son's displeasure. I presume the snakes had been milked of their poison before the ceremony, but it was the wrong thing to happen at the ceremony. He sat down for a while after that incident. Re-examining the video footage afterwards, we think he may have killed the boomslang soon after - the snake was limp and lifeless. Tradition had it that if a snake bit Khekhekhe, the snake died. That can be arranged ..

Sangomas

How does one become a Sangoma ?

A Sangoma is a Calling. Tradition has it that the ancestors call you - and give you a sign. Of course, all such signs can be ambiguous, but a common one is illness - you become ill, and do not seem to get better, or your life is not working in other ways, only solveable by taking up the challenge of becoming a Sangoma. However, my friend Victor became ill, and took it as the Sign. He refused to go to hospital, and died. Oops. Be sensible.

There is another traditional position in Zulu society - the iNganga - the Herbalist. This is more a profession - there is also a training in the plants and their various roles, and is not to be confused with the Sangoma.

When in Eshowe, I made enquiries on behalf of someone else to find this process. We had heard it was done through the Magistrates Court. So - we went there. I knew one of the magistrates there, whose zulu was fluent. He did not know, but said it definitely did not happen in his court. There happened to be a visiting magistrate there from Pongola - we asked him, and he promised to investigate. Meanwhile, general opinion was that we should ask in the traditional court - a parallel system run under the auspices of the Chief. I called Lily, the local chief. She gave me the number of Mr Mhlongo. I called him - he asked to speak to a zulu-speaker. It turned out he had a shop in Eshowe - Graham and I went around. A large, jolly man, he proudly pointed out his iNganga certificate hanging on the wall. His little black phonebook revealed the number of another Mr. Mhlongo - who lives in Greytown, Natal, the signature on the certificate in question.

Even though Mr. Mhlongo was the examiner for the iNganga, not the Sangoma, I figured he would be familiar with the procedure in his parallel profession, and I called him. His english was good, and he carefully explained the graduation process for the iNganga, involving an initial trainee certificate, some years of training, and finally an exam. we discussed this for a bit, and then I asked if there was a similar procedure for the Sangoma.

He explained that the Sangoma was fundamentally different, as the source of their power comes from their locality - their space and their people. He said it would be too difficult and expensive to travel to examine each Sangoma at their residence. But the process mainly entailed studying under an existing Sangoma, who would reveal the local initiations, practice, and graduation. Much appears to revolve around the slaughter of an animal - a goat or a cow, at a ceremony. I took this to be a diplomatic admission that there was no official certificate or recognition of the Sangoma - it is a mysterious art that needs to earn local recognition in their own area. I thanked him very much for his clear explanation. I have his phone number if anyone is interested.

Their role in society

What role does the sangoma play in modern Zulu society ?

I think they perform a role similar to a counsellor. They are paid money to listen to your problem, often about affairs of the heart, illness, travel, or family issues. Paying money serves a purpose - the client prepares their questions, maybe the sangoma is the first one to hear this difficult problem spelled out properly. The sangoma listens carefully, and repeats back to the client what they asked, with added wisdom from the sangoma mixed in.

Khekhekhe must, like the priest at the confessional, have heard very many stories. So a new one is like an old one, but slightly different. Knowing all the variations, he can see a path through to a solution.

But would you go to one of his sons, who cannot even live easily with his brother down the hill ? You are 'called' to be a sangoma - it is not a profession or skill. Sometimes these things skip a generation. Or perhaps tradition says Zulus will continue to find answers by going to the kraal where Khekhekhe and Dingiswayo are buried. They are, after all, seeking help from their ancestors.

Update

Kelsey has just put up his photos of the ceremony - fantastic. A couple of samples - With the green mamba and boomslang, and more dancers. Photos credit Kelsey Wood, Wandering Lens Photography - and check these and other galleries at wanderinglens.net.

Ancestry testing through genetics

Andy — Sun, 17 Feb 2008 12:04:00 +0200

I recently had a genetic analysis done to determine my ancestry - courtesy Ancestry24, the Medical Research Council, the National Health Laboratory Services and WITS University. It was a free test, and it came with an informative booklet to explain the results.

Through the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences I was given an opportunity to participate in a free Genealogical DNA test to trace my ancestry. They can do two tests for men, and one test for women. The tests trace you back through your mothers-mothers-mother or your fathers-fathers-father to the most recent ancestor with a non-coding DNA mutation.

These are the same tests they do at a crime scene, and as a paternity test. These are NOT the same tests done for diseases and allergies.

Introduction

The Nuclear Genome made up of a 50-50 mixture of DNA from our mother and our father. It is on 23 pairs of chromosomes, and adds up to about 3 billion base pairs. It is this genome that accounts for our physical differences. One of these chromosome pairs determines your sex - X-X for women, X-Y for men. The sperm carries half of the mans chromosome with it, and it statistically has a 50% chance of being an X or a Y. Thus the Y Chromosome is passed from the father to the son - there is no trace of this in women.

There is another structure inside every cell, the Mitochondria that converts energy from food into a form that cells can use, ATP. Mitochondria are found in the cells of animals, plants, algae and their common precursor, the fungi. In humans this consists of about 16,500 base pairs, and comes entirely from the mother.

If we go back another generation, to our grandparents, we are made up of 25% each of their genetic material. But there are two of them that we can trace easily - the grandfather on the father's side, and the grandmother on the mother's side. These two out of the four grandparents are not 'special' in any other way - we inherit characteristics from all four - we just have the ability to track just two.

Another generation - 2 grandparents out of 8 are 'trackable' for men - only one out of the eight is trackable by women.

It is important to note that the mutations that occur do so at random. Most mutations will be unsuccessful, resulting in proteins that do not work. Also, to 'stick', these have to happen at the level of the sperm or the egg. A cosmic ray came down and struck him in the balls, as it were, and that sperm made it to the goalposts.

The people that this happened to are also not necessarily particularly special. It just happened that one of their descendants (down the male or female line, depending on whether we are talking of the mitochondrial or Y chromosome) was successful, as a mother or in warfare and survival. These changes happen on average every 19,000 years, so the gap between mutation and their descendant's 'success' could be many generations.

The scientific process to sequence genes is very complicated, but is now done almost entirely by machine.

Mitochondrial DNA

For the purposes of ancestry testing, we do not use the entire genome. For Mitochondrial DNA, about 800 base pairs from two regions are used. This is done for a number of reasons - firstly, it is a lot less work to accurately sequence a (relatively) small section, and secondly this section is 'junk' - it does not code for any proteins, and thus plays no part in evolution. It also appears to be subject to change - the two sections are called "hypervariable regions (HVRI and HVRII)", making it a suitable place to look for mutations.

The 800 base region Mitochondrial DNA is compared one-by-one against what is called the "Cambridge Reference Sequence". This reference sequence is not 'special' at all - it just happens to be the first one done. All others are simply listed as a 'diff' against that one.

All the changes found can be mathematically tested for 'distance', which builds a tree. It is considered mathematically unlikely that one change will be exactly reversed by another mutation, as there is no selective reason to do so. This tree can thus be considered to represent inheritance - with the Mitochondrial Eve at the root of the tree. She is believed to have lived about 140,000 years ago in what is now Ethiopia, Kenya or Tanzania. Note that this is the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of all humans via the mitochondrial DNA pathway, not the unqualified MRCA of all humanity.

The most interesting branch of the tree is that closest to Mitochondrial Eve. This is the L0 (L-nought) branch, and specifically L0d, which has high representation amonst the Khoisan. A part of Ancestry24's goal was to sequence genes of people living in the Cape Town area and 'catch' some more samples in the sexy L0 branch, from the Cape Coloured population. They got some - I seem to remember about 15 or so. The DNA tree is typically represented as the root (Mitochondrial Eve, no individuals found with that exact sequence), a low-hanging branch (L0 and branches), and working up to Eurasians at the 'top'. Of course, we are all the same 'age' - and some african and asian branches have just as many variations, but it still Euro-centric to put us at the 'top'. Ancestry24 are just trying to get more data to populate the lesser-studied branches - sampling skew says they have many more representatives from Europe and North America. North America carries an old asian branch in the American Indians - where studies first started. Haplogroups A,B,C,D are those groups represented well in American Indians. They also have fairly good data from West Africa - via their African-Americans and the slave trade.

What does it mean to have a certain mtDNA Haplogroup ? For example, my detailed results are as follows :-

Changes in HVR1
- 16126T-C, 16294C-T, 16296C-T, 16304T-C
Changes in HVRII
- 73A-G, 263A-G
mtDNA Haplogroup
- T2

The Cambridge reference sequence belongs to European haplogroup H, and these represent the 'turns' needed on the tree to 'drive' from H to my leaf of the tree, T2. In the larger picture, T2 is a subdivision of T, which is a subdivision of R, which is a subdivision of N, which is a subdivision of L3.

Running that backwards, the booklet that came with my results tells me that L3 is thought to have originated about 80,000 years ago, most likely in East Africa. It is associated with an exodus "Out of Africa" about 60,000 to 80,000 years ago. The daughter lineages of L3, M and N left Africa to populate the rest of the world.

European haplogroups have been extensively studied, and Bryan Sykes wrote a book called "The Seven Daughters of Eve" where he personalised the subgroups that made it to Europe. T is given to the clan of Tara, who is hypothesised to have lived about 17,000 years ago in the northwest of Italy among the hills of Tuscany and along the estuary of the river Arno. Her descendants form about 10% of modern europeans.

Y-chromosome DNA

I was lucky (being a man) that I also get a Y chromosome analysis. Women share this lineage with brothers and fathers. Thus my Y chromosome analysis is identically applicable to my sisters (and brothers and father). The test done is different to the Mitochondrial DNA, and is considerably more difficult to extract, as it is a part of the nuclear DNA (3 billion base-pairs). Two types of markers are used - bi-allelic variants (two states or alleles can be found at one site on the chromosome) are used to classify me into a haplogroup. I am in Haplogroup R* - an as-yet unclassified sub-branch of R. This lettering bears no relation to the lettering of mtDNA above. The other marker used is called the STR (Short Tandem Repeats) consist of repetitive DNA elements that are tandemly repeated and are highly variable in humans. It is treated like a 'hash' - it will uniquely identify you but otherwise has little information on my origins.

As you can see, the STR data is useful for crime scene analysis, and close relative comparisons. I won't be putting that information on my blog :-)

So, where does R* come from ? My booklet is a lot more vague about the origins of the Y Chromosome haplogroups, talking of scattering, movement, displacement. This makes sense. Men can father more children, and in war, particularly centuries-old forgotten internecine wars in africa, the victors would have killed the males and taken the females as wives. Such is life. A man may father many sons, and lose them all as quickly. The female line is steadier.

The mathematics of tree-building does not care about mens habits in warfare - it unambiguously records the successive mutations in the Y chromosome. R is a sub-group of P which is a sub-group of K which is a sub-group of F. F branched from an untraceable parent, and F's peers are A, B, C, D, and E.

Haplogroups A thru E are variously represented in Southern Africa, with the Khoisan in A3b1. B2b is also found in the Khoisan and Pygmy populations of central africa. E3a most likely spread with the Bantu expansion, and is now the most common haplogroup in sub-Saharan Africa. Way-to-go E3a!

But .. hats off to F. A super-haplogroup, it and its sub-lineages contain more than 90% of the worlds male population. It possibly originated some time between 45,000 and 80,000 years ago, somewhere in North Africa or the Middle East. Some believe it travelled out of Africa on the first migration, some place it at the second migration.

K cannot be geographically placed well, though it is an old lineage. P is believed to have arisen in Siberia, Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan 35,000 to 40,000 years ago. R is thought to have originated somewhere in Northwest Asia around 30,000 years ago, and is primarily represented in Europe and West Eurasia.

So, the trail is lost somewhere in Europe, with movements occuring too quickly to be tracked by genetic mutations.

My thanks to Dr. H Soodyall and her team at the Dept. of Human Genetics for all their hard work bringing this to us.

2007 Kenya Election

Andy — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 10:49:00 +0200

I have watched the election crisis in Kenya unfold from the beginning, and am angry at the lack of concern the leaders have for the people they claim to represent.

Some background - I was born in Kenya, in Nakuru, went to school in Molo, and then again to school at Kenton College, Nairobi, until I was 12 years old. I have a little swahili - enough to get me around, and tell a couple of jokes.

Kenya is sub-saharan Africa's third-largest economy, after South Africa and Nigeria. Its major port, Mombasa, serves as a shipping gateway not only for Kenya but also for Uganda, parts of Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi. It is an old British Colony - my father moved there after the Second World War as part of a program of demobilisation. He had a farm that crossed the Equator in the Kenya Highlands, and grew wheat, barley, pyrethrum as cash crops, in addition to cattle and sheep. The land had never been ploughed before.

Independence

After independence, Jomo Kenyatta was prime minister and then president until his death in 1978. He was a Kikuyu. After him came Daniel arap Moi, from the minority Kalenjin and a period of systematic looting of the countries treasury for the benefit of those at the top. The Goldenberg scandal at one time creamed 10% of Kenya's GDP for non-existent gold exports. The affair has never been satisfactorily investigated, because all the people involved were still in power.

Coup Attempt

In 1982 there was a failed coup attempt against Moi. Implicated in the coup attempt was Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, a former Vice President to Jomo Kenyatta, and his son Raila Amolo Odinga. Raila was detained without trial for six years. Has was released, but jailed twice after that for political campaigning. He fled the country to Norway, but returned to contest the 1997 presidential elections, where he came third to Moi.

After the election, Raila, a Luo, supported the Moi government, and led a merger between his party, NDP, and Moi's KANU party. He served in Moi's Cabinet as Energy Minister from June 2001 to 2002.

Kibaki

After Moi came Mwai Kibaki, who allied his party to Raila Odinga's National Rainbow Coalition, campaigned on an anti-corruption ticket and won. Though Kibaki himself managed to avoid being tainted with corruption, his half-hearted investigations into the previous regimes looting and his retention in the government of many of the accused meant that there was little followup.

He also reneged on his promises to Odinga, who was overlooked for a cabinet position. There were disagreements about a proposed new constitution for the country, and Odinga split and formed the Orange Democratic Movement, after the symbol for the 'No' vote in the failed constitutional referendum.

2007 elections

So, after a turbulent political scene, where Odinga and his various parties had played second fiddle for decades, opinion polls predicted a narrow win for Odinga in the 2007 elections. Kenya has a poor record for transparent elections, but this time it all looked on track.

The law had been changed to mandate counting to take place at the polling station, the results to be announced, printed receipts for all parties on location, and then the returning officer take the results to the central counting place in Nairobi.

There was a high turnout, and voting day came and went fairly peacefully. The people had spoken. The electoral commission announced the results as they came in, but anyway the newspapers all had their representatives on location, and were running up their own tallies based on the announced results. First returns went to Kibaki, but the tide turned, and by Saturday afternoon it seemed obvious to everyone looking at the trends that Odinga would get in by a narrow margin.

The Electoral Commission of Kenya fell silent. New results were not being announced. There is a maze of speculation, but my opinion is that results from Central Province (Kibaki's stronghold) were deliberately delayed, and then numbers added to Kibaki's toll - sufficient to tip the balance. Many of the later returns were not accompanied by Form 16A, which has to be signed by all parties at the polling station, and some results were even telephoned in, a clear violation of procedure.

In a chaotic Sunday, the head of the Electoral Commission to the results to State House, and found Kibaki with the Attorney-General ready to be sworn in in a small ceremony with no media. The result was already known.

The wikipedia page above will give more details of the aftermath, but suffice it to say that Raila Odinga was not a happy man. Having waited nearly thirty years on the sidelines, having spent six on those in prison, he was not going to take a stolen election lightly.

Though I believe Kibaki stuffed the ballot to win, there is evidence that Odinga stuffed as well. The obvious indication of a manipulated ballot was that the parliamentary elections showed Odinga a clear winner, but a lot more people appeared to have voted in the Presidential election, a reversal of statistics from the previous election. I do not believe the Kenya electorate is sophisticated enough to vote for one party in the parliamentary election, and another for the Presidential.

However, the pre-planned mayhem organised by Odinga's party after the election, directed at Kikuyus in Odinga strongholds, is inexcusable. There was a backlash against Luos in Kikuku areas as well, all stoked by inflammatory remarks by politicians whipping up animosity. This is definitely not the role of a politician - it is the role of a calculating ruling class planning on filling their pockets from the treasury of the third largest economy in southern africa. Stoking tribal divisions is a despicable tactic by a politician, and that has been practiced on all sides. Tribal divisions are the easiest wounds to open, and the hardest to close.

Kenya runs on an election of local members of parliament - two-thirds of them were thrown out this time. Parliament has a reputation for pushing through bills that backdate large salary increases for themselves from the beginning of their term in office, despite having voted themselves an increase at the start.

International response

Besides nearly universal condemnation of the tallying process in the presidential election, what can the international community do ? Sanctions will not only hurt the voters who did their best, it will hurt other countries that depend on Kenya for its port Mombasa. The EU is reducing aid to Kenya (which was cut off for nearly a decade by the World Bank over the Goldenberg scandal), and I hope others will too. There seems little prospect of a recount making any sense, as it was so poorly carried out the last time. Another election seems equally distant. The two players must both acknowledge the shortcomings of the election, and do what is best for the country, not jostle for a better position at the feeding trough.

Kenyans deserve better politicians than the gluttons at the top now. Kenyans were asked in the 2007 elections, and they turned up in droves to reply. Their prayers have gone unanswered - because of cynical manipulators at the top of all parties that think only of themselves.

Update - election observers

The following account is drawn from the statements of four of the five domestic election observers allowed into the verification process the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) afforded political party representatives the night before the announcement of the results for the Presidency. Kenyans for Peace with Truth and Justice (KPTJ)

Update: Other articles and blogs

Pray for Kenya A blog with many articles
Kenya: roots of crisis Some history of politics in Kenya
Kenya on the brink Detailing Kenya's corrupt politics